Gabriel Gomez has a big lead in the Suburban town and is tied in Boston. Polling also notated late breaking momentum to Gomez:
Boston: Gomez 41% Sullivan 41%
Shrewsbury: Gomez 48% Sullivan 24%
Dan Winslow is a distant third in both Bellwethers.
Via Suffolk Poling:
The Republican Primary could be much closer than the Democratic, depending on turnout. Two areas were selected as bellwethers: Boston and Shrewsbury. Dan Winslow is polling third in both bellwethers, suggesting a possible early exit on Tuesday night. In Boston, Sullivan initially led Gomez 38 percent to 34 percent but when “leaners” were added, it became a dead heat at 41 percent each, with late-breaking momentum to Gomez. In Shrewsbury, Gomez led 48 percent to Sullivan’s 24 percent, with Winslow receiving 14 percent.
“This is a key geographical finding, because it suggests that Gomez may be able to withstand Sullivan’s voter strength in big cities like Boston by running up larger margins in suburban areas and small towns like Shrewsbury,” said Paleologos. “Ironically the Winslow voters could swing this primary by rotating en masse to one or the other of the front-runners at the last minute. To be safe, both Gomez and Sullivan may want to have their recount teams ready. The turnout will be low, and so could the margin of victory for either Republican, although Gomez may be slightly better positioned.”